Analysis: China’s HPV Vaccine Market in 2025 – NIP inclusion, Price Wars, and Market Dynamics

Executive Summary

China’s HPV vaccine market is at a pivotal moment in 2025, driven by government inclusion of bivalent HPV vaccines into the National Immunization Program (NIP) and the commercial rollout of domestically produced nonavalent vaccines. These initiatives aim to expand coverage for adolescent girls, potentially accelerating cervical cancer elimination efforts. At the same time, rising competition among domestic manufacturers has triggered aggressive price reductions, eroding profitability for key players such as Wantai Biological, Watson Biologics, and Zhifei Biological. While public health benefits from lower costs and wider access are clear, long-term sustainability of innovation and supply chains is uncertain amid ongoing “price wars.” This report analyzes regulatory, market, economic, and public health dynamics to assess implications for industry stakeholders and national health goals.

Regulatory and Policy Developments

The inclusion of HPV vaccines in China’s NIP represents a major policy shift, addressing long-standing barriers to adoption. Announced in September 2025, the program prioritizes bivalent vaccines for school-aged girls, building on pilot initiatives that had reached roughly 40% of 13- to 14-year-olds by late 2024. This step aligns China with global trends, where 148 WHO member states have incorporated HPV vaccines into national programs as of early 2025, although China’s delayed adoption has kept coverage low—estimated at 10.15% first-dose coverage among women aged 9–45 from 2017–2022.

Before 2025, HPV vaccines were non-NIP and relied on out-of-pocket payments, limiting uptake despite approvals starting in 2016. The NIP focuses on bivalent formulations such as Wantai Biological’s Cecolin® (Xin Ke Ning), targeting HPV types 16 and 18, responsible for 70–80% of cervical cancers. Long-term follow-up of Cecolin® shows sustained antibody responses and efficacy against precancerous lesions, supporting its suitability for national deployment.

The policy currently excludes males, even though approvals for male use—such as Merck’s Gardasil® extension in January 2025—exist. This gender-specific focus reflects prioritization amid resource constraints but leaves potential gaps in population-level protection.

Challenges remain, including vaccine hesitancy fueled by access issues and misinformation. Evidence shows that non-inclusion in the NIP historically suppressed vaccination intention rates. Implementation success will depend on logistics such as supply allocation, school-based delivery, and integration with existing immunization infrastructure, potentially mirroring the United Kingdom’s near-elimination of cervical cancer through early adolescent vaccination since 2008.

Market Dynamics and Competition

China’s HPV vaccine market has become increasingly competitive, with domestic firms gaining share through cost advantages and targeted formulations. Currently, six vaccines are approved (see Table 1).

Table 1: Approved HPV Vaccines in China (2025)

The September 2025 launch of Cecolin 9®, priced at 499 yuan per dose—roughly 40% of imported equivalents—offers coverage for nine HPV types, including China-prevalent strains 52 and 58, with slightly superior antibody responses.

This has intensified market competition. Watson Biologics slashed bivalent prices to as low as 27.5 yuan per dose—down from 300 yuan initially—comparable to the cost of a milk tea. Zhifei Biological, Merck’s distributor, responded with “buy one, get one” promotions on Gardasil 9®, reducing per-dose cost from 1,300 yuan to 900 yuan. Price pressures have squeezed margins significantly.

Economic and Pricing Analysis

Table 2 summarizes the financial impacts on key players during H1 2025.

Table 2: Market and Financial Impacts on Key Players (2025 H1)

Pricing in China reflects a trade-off between accessibility and industry sustainability. Domestic bivalents now cost under 100 yuan per course for adolescents, while nonavalents range from 998 yuan (two doses, ages 9–17) to 1,500 yuan (three doses, ages 18–45)—significantly below imported options. Cost-effectiveness models suggest further reductions are essential to achieve positive economic returns in a national program.

Willingness-to-pay surveys indicate regional variations: urban parents are more likely to invest in higher-cost vaccines for broader coverage, while affordability remains the main driver of uptake elsewhere. Government procurement under the NIP could stabilize demand, but if tenders prioritize the lowest price, R&D incentives may suffer. Globally, the HPV vaccine market is projected to reach $10.7 billion by 2029, growing at a 13% CAGR, with China as a key driver. Local “neijuan” (intense competition) may cap profitability and innovation if unmitigated.

Public Health Implications

Expanded coverage is expected to reduce China’s cervical cancer burden, where incidence is rising and 95% of cases are linked to seven high-risk HPV types. Coverage trends in cities like Chengdu show increases from near-zero to over 10% in recent years, but national penetration remains below 30% among unvaccinated women aged 9–45. Prioritizing 9–14-year-olds aligns with WHO recommendations and could generate herd immunity effects similar to those observed in the UK.

Challenges such as geographic disparities and vaccine hesitancy must be addressed through school-based programs, education campaigns, and outreach. Expanding vaccination to males could broaden prevention, given rising oropharyngeal cancers, though current policy does not yet reflect this need.

Future Outlook

If supply chains remain robust, NIP inclusion may boost coverage to over 50% by 2030. However, ongoing price pressures could deter new entrants or innovation in multivalent vaccines. Domestic firms like Wantai Biological are positioned to dominate with capacity advantages, reducing import dependence further.

Regulatory priorities, including faster approvals for male indications and combination vaccines, will be key to achieving WHO’s 90-70-90 cervical cancer elimination targets. Balancing affordability with economic incentives will determine whether China transforms HPV vaccination from a public health challenge into a preventable relic.

Sources

1. National Health Commission (NHC) of China. “HPV Vaccine Included in National Immunization Program.” September 11, 2025.
2. Sina Finance. “China’s HPV Vaccination Policy Update and Market Outlook.” September 12, 2025.
3. Xinhua News. “China’s HPV Vaccine National Immunization Rollout.” September 11, 2025.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute professional, medical, or financial advice. Readers should consult primary literature and official regulatory sources for verification.